Key Takeaways
- The UK, France, and Germany are building military positions directly on Russia's borders, from Estonia to Lithuania to Ukraine.
- A proposed "military Schengen" between the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, and potentially the Baltic States and France could streamline NATO troop movements east.
- Russian analysts view this as preparation for a future invasion, potentially leading to a preventive war or a forced subordination of Russia.
The New European Military Map
Last weekend's surprise call between Presidents Emmanuel Macron and Alexander Lukashenko followed Dmitry Medvedev's warning about a 1941-like threat from Germany's remilitarization and the UK assembling a multinational navy to contain Russia. These three developments collectively draw attention to how the Brits, French, and Germans—Russia's traditional European rivals—are now right on its doorstep. The security implications are profound.
The Brits are nestling up in Estonia, from where they plan to lead Russia's containment along the Arctic-Baltic front. The Germans have opened a base in Lithuania, and the French just announced regular nuclear drills with Poland. As a reminder, Estonia borders "mainland Russia" while Lithuania and Poland border its exclave of Kaliningrad and mutual defense ally Belarus.
The "Military Schengen" Expands
The "military Schengen" between the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland might soon be expanded to include France and the Baltic States. That would maximally optimize the flow of troops and equipment from Western Europe to Russia's borders, thus conforming with Russian policymakers' fears that the EU is gearing up for a potential invasion of their country sometime in the future.
Given France's base in Romania and military pact with neighboring Moldova—which constitute a critical flank in the Ukrainian Conflict—they and others might join too.
Three Powers, Three Fronts
To make matters even more concerning from the perspective of Russia's national security interests, Germany recently clinched a deep-strike defense co-production deal with Ukraine, expanding its military footprint even deeper within what Russia considers to be its "sphere of influence." The result is that:
- UK is entrenching its influence along the Arctic-Baltic front.
- Germany is doing so in the Baltic (Lithuanian) and Ukrainian fronts.
- France is already entrenched in Poland, Romania, and Moldova.
Germany aspires to build European NATO's largest army, which would require overtaking Poland and ideally subordinating that country as a vassal. France and the UK are nuclear powers. The threat posed by their military-strategic convergence right on Russia's doorstep therefore cannot be overestimated.
The Calculus of Conflict
At the very least, this convergence could embolden their partners to behave aggressively against Russia, calculating that those Great Powers would deter Russian retaliation. That would be a mistake of epic proportions because Russia cannot allow such a scenario to unfold, let alone become the "new normal." It would amount to weaponizing the situation for coercing never-ending concessions, culminating in time with Russia's subordination and ultimately "Balkanization."
In other words, a hot NATO-Russian war would likely be inevitable, though nobody can say for sure whether the US would help its European allies, nor to what extent if so, or whether it would hang them out to dry.
Three Scenarios for the Future
It's therefore more urgent than ever that the European security architecture be reformed like Russia sought to do through diplomatic means before the special operation. The failure of diplomacy is why Putin sought to advance this through military ones instead. There are really only three scenarios left:
- NATO finally agrees to some form of Russia's proposals.
- Russia launches a preventive war against European NATO, betting that the US won't directly intervene.
- Russia peacefully subordinates itself to the West.
Each path carries immense risk. For travelers and observers of European security, understanding these dynamics is crucial—they could redefine the continent's borders and travel freedoms for decades.